@Border_Ruffian said:

Another one of Rick's plans has blown up in his face. So what's the situation? The combined force of the Hilltop, the Kingdom and Alexandria is what?...about 50? Negan had about 200 at the Sanctuary (not counting those at the outposts) and will have Miss Bangs and the Garbage Gang on his side too - and they are all motivated for war. The Hilltop, Kingdom and Alexandria are now sitting ducks. They will either have to evacuate all three and leave the area...or evacuate two and combine all of their force and people at one location.

Negan is the American Forces. Alexandria/Hilltop/The Kingdom are Viet Cong Rebels.

We all know how this story ends.

@TheShredder said:

@Border_Ruffian said:

Another one of Rick's plans has blown up in his face. So what's the situation? The combined force of the Hilltop, the Kingdom and Alexandria is what?...about 50? Negan had about 200 at the Sanctuary (not counting those at the outposts) and will have Miss Bangs and the Garbage Gang on his side too - and they are all motivated for war. The Hilltop, Kingdom and Alexandria are now sitting ducks. They will either have to evacuate all three and leave the area...or evacuate two and combine all of their force and people at one location.

Negan is the American Forces. Alexandria/Hilltop/The Kingdom are Viet Cong Rebels.

We all know how this story ends.

Actually, I don't think they know who the Kingdom people were. Gavin and his group weren't there with Negan. And even he never saw Shiva, so that detail won't mean anything if he gets wind of it. Also, it was only one group of fighters that Ezekiel took with him. He has a lot more back home. Remember that he didn't leave planning to fight that day, he was going to Alexandria to more or less formally throw in his lot with Rick. Simon has dealt with Hilltop though, and had to have recognized some of their people in the cavalry charge. So Alexandria and the Hilltop have both been outed but not the Kingdom. Not yet anyway. If Gavin hears a description of the dude with the tiger he's going to know who it was. The question is, would he betray them? Gavin seems a lot like Dwight. Resigned to the way things are but not liking it. If he sees a real opportunity to overthrow Negan he might switch sides too - or not, you really can't tell and aren't going to risk trusting him without a pretty compelling reason, but it's something to consider.

Negan blew his best shot at taking Alexandria. This war is going to be a combination of guerilla and medieval siege warfare. We're dealing with fortified cities, more or less. If you can't break down the walls you starve them out. Or that's what you would do, if modern vehicles and firearms weren't around to complicate things. It should be interesting. Assaulting prepared fortifications requires a sizable numeric advantage, and while the Saviors still have greater numbers than the alliance against them they don't have enough of an advantage. As things stand, a direct attack on the Sanctuary would be effectively impossible unless most of Negan's fighters were away at the time. And his people probably couldn't get into either Alexandria or the Hilltop by force, not without unacceptably high casualties that would weaken his organization too much. Unless something changes we're looking at a long war of attrition with the odds tilted in Negan's favor (although the outcome is far from certain).