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SM25 vs MOS
публикувана от AnnaBSTAFFMOD на 6 юли 2025 в 10:02 AM
Everybody wants to know what SM25 has to make to beat Man Of Steel (MOS) and to breakeven, but lies are told about the budget. Lies are told about ticket sales too. Everybody has a different opening weekend BoxOffice (BO) projection. SM25 will open somewhere between $90M and $200M. lol SM25 will breakeven at $500M and needs $700M to be profitable. All BS. The rules of thumb were applied to other films, so they’ll be applied to SM25 too.
So I took the liberty to put some important things in one post with some explanation. We don’t have all the info, but we do have enough. Bear with me, if you don’t want the shills, JG minions and ZS goonies to confuse you. Also grab your calculator to double check, because the amounts are gonna look crazy. lol
SM25’s Total Budget: Production Budget (PB) + Marketing Budget (MB)
The Hollywood Reporter: Last year, documents filed by the Superman production team with the Ohio government seeking incentives listed the gross budget of the highly anticipated July film as $363.8 million. […] one longtime financier says the $363 million figure isn’t incorrect. And sources say DC and its parent could spend as much as $200 million on the global marketing campaign […].
$363,845,386.00 PB before all tax cut
$011,091,686.70 Ohio tax cut
................................…
$352,753,699.30
It’s said that SM25 received $38M tax cut in Georgia. If true, that means that SM25 spent like $126.7M (if it got the base 20% + the 10% uplift) or $190M (if it only got the base 20%) in Georgia.
According to the Ohio Motion Picture Tax Application form, SM25 spent $36,972,289 in Ohio for a $11,091,686.70 (30%) tax cut. 25% of SM25 was shot in Ohio.
Assuming SM25 received the whole 30% tax cut in Georgia, that would mean it spent a total of $163,672,289 in Georgia and Ohio. The rest of the PB ($200,173,097) is used to pay the director, writer, cast and stuff like that. I think stuff that kinda happened during the moths-long pre- and post-production.
$352,753,699.30
$038,000,000.00 Georgia tax cut
................................…
$314,753,699,30
Round it down to $310M or $300M? WBD*cks want to round it down to $225M. lol Not gonna happen. Debunk what THR wrote or the PB will remain $310M.
In 2011, MOS’ PB was $225M. In 2024, when SM25 was made, $225M would be $313,774,067. So $310M isn’t a crazy PB, because inflation was crazy the last few years.
The rule of thumb is the MB is half of the PB. So SM25’s MB should be $155M, which coincidentally happens to be almost the same as Barbie’s ($150M with inflation $158M). However, according to THR, SM25’s MB is $200M.
SM25’s Total Budget: $310M PB + $150M or $200M MB = $460M or $510M lol
SM25’s Break-Even Point
China keeps 73% of the Chinese BO. Theaters in the US and other countries keep somewhere between 40%–50% of the BO. So the studio doesn’t get 100% of the gross.
For simplicity, the rule of thumb to break even is 3x (or 2.5x) the PB (when you don’t know the MB) or 2x the total budget. We have the total budget.
SM25’s break-even point: 2 x $460M or $510M = $920M or $1,020,000,000 lol
If you use the fake $225M PB + $200M MB = $425M, SM25 will breakeven at $850M.
If you use the fake $225M PB + $150M MB = $375M, SM25 will breakeven at $750M.
MOS BO numbers (+inflation 2025)
Made in 2011 and released in June 2013
- $225,000,000 – +$313,774,067 – PB 2011 (+2024)
- $012,062,124 – +$016,644,920 – Thursday Preview
- $116,619,362 – +$160,926,880 – Opening Weekend (excl. Thursday preview)
- $128,681,486 – +$177,571,800 – Opening Weekend (incl. Thursday preview)
- $291,045,518 – +$401,623,249 – Domestic BO
The US inflation calculator can’t be used to adjust the international BO. You need the inflation calculator of each country for that. Nobody has time for that. lol So the international BO below won’t be adjusted.
- $376,954,000 – International BO (not adjusted for inflation)
- $667,999,518 – +$778,577,249 – Worldwide BO (only the domestic BO is adjusted for inflation)
Should SM25 surpass the original worldwide BO or the worldwide BO partially adjusted for inflation?
Neither! Since the international BO can’t be (easily) adjusted for inflation, it’s better to use the multiplier.
WorldwideBO / PB = Multiplier (amount of times the film made its PB back)
MOS Multiplier
2.969x
If I round to one decimal, the multiplier will be round up to 3 and MOS’ worldwide BO is clearly not 3x its PB. The more numbers after the decimal point, the more accurate too. But I’ll keep it three.
To match MOS’ 2.969 multiplier, SM25 must make $920,390,000. lol
If you use the fake $225M PB, which is the same as MOS, then SM25 must make $667,999,518, which is the same as MOS. lol
Who are the shills?
Outlets consider these films huge flops! Only failures with a multiplier above 2 are mentioned below.
- $082M – $205,358,461 – 2.504x – $000,000,000 – Birds of Prey (not released in China; released like two months before COVID hit)
- $200M – $476,073,180 – 2.380x – $039,424,993 – Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
- $180M – $413,640,021 – 2.298x – $012,937,234 – Captain America: Brave New World
- $300M – $655,945,209 – 2.186x – $104,000,000 – Justice League
- $075M – $162,759,437 – 2.170x – $000,000,000 – Morbius (not released in China)
- $205M – $439,381,226 – 2.143x – $064,595,991 – Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
- $180M – $381,766,865 – 2.121x – $016,081,303 – Thunderbolts (still in theaters)
- $200M – $401,731,759 – 2.009x – $000,000,000 – Eternals (not released in China; COVID wasn’t completely over yet)
China (4th column) can easily add a huge amount to a film’s international BO. So it’s good to know whether or not a film was released there. Otherwise, it’s not a fair competition or comparison.
Unlike those eight films, MOS wasn’t considered a huge flop. With a 2.969 multiplier, it was considered disappointing. lol The WB idiots wanted MOS to make a billion $.
Let’s see what outlets will call SM25 if it has a 2.504 (huge flop) or a 2.969 (disappointing) multiplier. lol
DC’s most popular character
Batman (BM) is DC’s most popular character, but Batman Begins didn’t make a billion $. At the time, Christian Bale was a well-known actor too. HC wasn’t well known when he was cast as SM. Still, MOS has a bigger multiplier than Batman Begins while having a bigger PB too ($225M vs $178.6M).
Made in 2004 and released in June 2005
- $150,000,000 – +$178,617,522 – 2.378x – PB 2004 (+2011)
- $205,343,774 – +$244,937,376 – Domestic BO (+2013)
- $151,426,819 – +$151,426,819 – International BO (not adjusted for inflation)
- $356,770,593 – +$396,364,195 – Worldwide BO (only the domestic BO is adjusted for inflation)
Since I mentioned BM, let me mention The Batman too.
Made in 2020 and released in March 2022
- $200,000,000 – +$242,407,780 – 3.854x – PB 2020 (+2024)
- $369,612,903 – +$405,998,912 – Domestic BO (+2025)
- $401,247,477 – +$401,247,477 – International BO (not adjusted for inflation)
- $770,860,380 – +$807,246,389 – Worldwide BO (only the domestic BO is adjusted for inflation)
Critics and audience ratings
It’s said that audiences didn’t like MOS. That’s a lie! lol
Cinemascore
A -
IMDB
7.1/10 < (837,000) Users
Metacritic
55 < (47) Critics ~ Users (4,106) > 7.5
Rotten Tomatoes
49% < (70) Top Critics
57% < (339) All Critics
75% < (250,000) Audience
Let the competition and betting begin!
Отговор от Triksy
на 7 юли 2025 в 12:46 PM
It should be 3x PB to BE,
Because the PB’s keep getting bigger and bigger, some say 2.5x. The argument is that the MB isn’t always 50% of such huge PB. China gets more than 70%. The studio gets more the opening weekend and mostly 60% from other countries. That doesn’t sound like keeping it simple. Simple means 3x PB. If the film has a $300M PB, the studio will probably spend a $150M or more to promote it. It sounds crazy that such film has to make $900M or close to that to BE, but the theaters don’t show films for free.
THR: “There’s no way to defend these budgets, because when you get into the $700 million to $900 million break-even point in regards to box office and ancillary revenue, it doesn’t make any sense,” says a veteran financier.
Review embargo tomorrow. Can’t wait to see the reactions of the minions and goonies.
Отговор от AnnaB
на 11 юли 2025 в 8:42 AM
Of course, these are important to keep the competition fair. The amount of overseas markets in the opening weekend matters. Upgrade screens matters, because upgrade tix are more expensive. Running time matters. Shorter running time means more screenings. lol
143 minutes < MOS ~ running time ~ SM25 > 129 minutes
51 < MOS ~ total overseas markets ~ SM25 > 78
24 < MOS ~ overseas markets opening weekend ~ SM25 > 78
8 < MOS ~ major overseas markets opening 2nd weekend ~ SM25 > 0
3D < MOS ~ upgrade ~ SM25 > Dolby, PLF, Screen-X, motion seats…
MOS 2013 (+inflation)
Superman‘s preview figure includes Tuesday night’s Amazon Prime members screenings cash of $2.8M, plus monies from showtimes which began today at 2PM.
[…] the best damn previews we’ve seen all year ahead of Disney’s Lilo & Stitch ($14.5M, $146M 3-day opening) and Captain America: Brave New World ($12M, $88.8M 3-day).
There’s also a shot when we wake up tomorrow morning it could be higher than Matt Reeves’ The Batman from 2022 which did $21.6M in overall previews (including $4M Tuesday shows and Thursday showtimes that began at 3PM; $134M opening).
Gunn’s Superman is close to the sun as far preview records go for Superman movies overall, but hasn’t surpassed it (and that’s not a bad thing) meaning 2016’s Batman v. Superman holds the record for the best previews ever for a Superman movie with $27.7M ($166M 3-day).
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/articles/superman-soaring-21m-previews-best-045959836.html?
[Superman] will be flying around the world as the major-territory rollout commences on Wednesday in France, Italy and Korea. Thursday adds Germany, Australia, Brazil and Mexico, and Friday brings the UK, Spain, China and Japan on board. It will be in 78 territories total.
Superman absorbs all the premium formats of Dolby, PLF, Screen-X and motion seats for Universal’s Jurassic World Rebirth […].
https://deadline.com/2025/07/superman-box-office-opening-forecast-1236452276/
US and Canada (4,207 theaters with 3D in 3,357 venues):
Internationally, Warner Bros says Man Of Steel ranked #1 everywhere with a gross of $71.6M from 9,710 screens in the 24 overseas markets in release.
Key markets that opened this weekend [06/14 – 06/16/2013] were:
Other notable cumes are:
Pic still has 27 more markets opening next weekend [06/21 – 06/23/2013], including the major countries:
https://deadline.com/2013/06/man-of-steel-beginning-worldwide-release-record-opening-day-in-the-philippines-519940/
I know. I thought it was weird, but 2.5x is what’s used. I’ll add 3x too. I also have to explain to the minions why inflation is important. This has been explained many times. They’re just stupid. lol They think everybody is using inflation to jack up MOS’ BO numbers. At least, we always adjust the BO for inflation around here.
100 people bought tix in 2013 for MOS
$10 for tix in 2013
100 x $10 = $1,000
100 people buy tix in 2025 for SM25
$15 for tix in 2025
100 x $15 = $1,500
Same 100 people, but $500 more revenue. Capisce?
The minions are celebrating. lol Let’s see if the critic and audience scores will remain the same after this weekend.
Deadline just posted the preview numbers, but it calls MOS' preview "different era for previews". I guess we'll have to figure it out when The Numbers publish the numbers.
Отговор от Sue-Yin
на 13 юли 2025 в 8:36 PM
The opening weekend of 12 yo dark, depressing MOS may beat the opening weekend of the new bright, joyful SM25 and MOS doesn’t even have to adjust for inflation.
But the James Gunn c*ck suckers (a little geek bro language there) are cheating. How desperate are they?
All the outlets, YouTubers and TikTokers are shilling hard. They include SM25’s $22.5M preview ($2.8M Amazon Tuesday special and $19.7M Thursday) in its $122M opening weekend, but they don’t include MOS’ $12M Wal-Mart Thursday preview into its $116M opening weekend.
Here are the direct links to see MOS’ $12M preview. You dumbarse c*nts can’t miss it.
Box Office Mojo
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4034037249/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs
The Numbers
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Man-of-Steel#tab=box-office
Will all you James Gunn c*ck riders (again, a little geek bro language there) ignore the fact that MOS was released in only 24 overseas markets its opening weekend too? Because SM25 is released in 78 overseas markets. In case you slimy, stinky cheaters didn’t know, that makes a huge difference.
BTW, crappy Jurassic World Rebirth is #1 in several countries. SM25 sure as hell was never #1 in China.
Oh, back in the day, preview started Thursday night. It was like 0.25 day. Now, it’s almost the whole day. SM25 adds specials from Tuesday too. Again, if you shills ignore all this crap, you’re just cheaters.
Deadline, June 17, 2013 8:49am: FRIDAY 7 AM UPDATE: Not even torrential downpours in NYC could dampen enthusiastic crowds forming long lines for Thursday late shows. Warner Bros and Legendary Pictures just announced its hotly anticipated Man Of Steel opened with a midnight show of $9 million. Combined with $12M from a corporate group sale screening program at 7 PM, this third Superman franchise begins its North American run with a cume of $21M.
Of course, any such record must come with an asterisk because Hollywood studios recently have interpreted ‘midnights’ as beginning at 7 PM Thursday through midnight and sometimes into early dawn. So that prevents any accurate movie-to-movie direct comparison of late show grosses.
This third Superman franchise goes wide today in a whopping 4,207 locations which is the 2nd widest release ever for a non-sequel: 850 are 2D only, and the remaining venues will play in 3D with a 2D component.
Since Man of Steel was actually a little front-loaded this weekend, it's unfortunately going to matter whether or not you count that extra $12 million from the Thursday Wal-Mart screenings as part of the opening weekend or merely basically 'bonus grosses' to be counted exclusively as Thursday figures.
So bear with me, as this might get a little complicated. Man Of Steel debuted this weekend for a 3.25 day total of $128.7 million.
If you count that whole figure as its opening weekend, then it not only trumps the $116.1 million debut of Alice In Wonderland for the second-best opening weekend for a non-sequel behind The Hunger Games's $152 million but becomes the 12th biggest debut ahead of the $128.1 million debut of Iron Man 2.
But if you count just the $116.1 million Fri-Sun total as its opening weekend, which I generally do not, that puts Man Of Steel above the $110 million debut of Toy Story 3 for the June weekend record and ahead of Alice In Wonderland's $116.1 million but beyond the $121 million debut of Shrek the Third for the 15th biggest opening weekend in history. Big problems, I know...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2013/06/16/weekend-box-office-man-of-steel-soars-to-125-million-debut/